One of the four criteria for DOGSO is "likelihood of keeping or gaining control of the ball." While there is some subjectivity in determining if the attacker who is fouled is likely to keep or gain control of the ball, sometimes the attacker's last touch on the ball before the ball is too "heavy." Because the first O of DOGSO stands for "obvious," when there is a question about the likelihood of keeping or gaining control of the ball," then the red card for a DOGSO cannot be given.
Below is a video of the referee correctly judging that the last touch on the ball by the attacker was too heavy, negating the "obvious" goal scoring opportunity. Therefore, a yellow card for SPA, as the referee in this video gave, was the correct decision.
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